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The municipalities expected to grow and shrink the most by 2050

Statistics Norway's population projection to 2050, main alternative.

Nannestad has the highest projected population growth to 2050 of Norway's municipalities at 36.3% (2026). The lowest is Årdal at −15.4%. Source: SSB, table 14746, processed by Morning Analytics 2 November 2026.

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36.3%Highest: Nannestad
4.7%Median of the municipalities
−15.4%Lowest: Årdal

Analysis: why are some at the top and others at the bottom?

We compared projected population growth to 2050 with every other municipal figure we have, from Statistics Norway, NIPH and the Brønnøysund Register Centre. Below are the figures that go most closely together with projected population growth to 2050 across the country, and what marks the municipalities at the top and bottom on those figures.

The pattern across the country

  • Municipalities that rank high on «Share aged 80 and over» most often rank low on projected population growth to 2050 (strong association, rank correlation −0.71 across 183 municipalities; Statistics Norway table 07459).
  • Municipalities that rank high on «Centrality (Statistics Norway's centrality index, 6 is most central)» most often also rank high on projected population growth to 2050 (strong association, rank correlation 0.70 across 183 municipalities; Statistics Norway, centrality index).
  • Municipalities that rank high on «Gross operating revenue per inhabitant» most often rank low on projected population growth to 2050 (strong association, rank correlation −0.69 across 183 municipalities; Statistics Norway table 12137).
  • Municipalities that rank high on «Net operating expenditure per inhabitant» most often rank low on projected population growth to 2050 (strong association, rank correlation −0.67 across 183 municipalities; Statistics Norway table 12137).

The highest and the lowest

  • No. 1 Nannestad (36.3%) Fits the pattern: «Share aged 80 and over» 3.5% (no. 353 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 07459); «Gross operating revenue per inhabitant» 100,829 kr (no. 350 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 12137); «Net operating expenditure per inhabitant» 74,063 kr (no. 340 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 12137). Most distinctive industry: landtransport og rørtransport, 11% of the jobs, 4.6 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
  • No. 2 Våler (Østfold) (35.5%) Fits the pattern: «Share aged 80 and over» 3.7% (no. 349 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 07459); «Centrality (Statistics Norway's centrality index, 6 is most central)» 4 (no. 27 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway, centrality index); «Net operating expenditure per inhabitant» 80,184 kr (no. 294 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 12137). Most distinctive industry: anleggsvirksomhet, 6% of the jobs, 5.8 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
  • No. 3 Lørenskog (34.1%) Fits the pattern: «Centrality (Statistics Norway's centrality index, 6 is most central)» 6 (no. 1 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway, centrality index); «Net operating expenditure per inhabitant» 66,020 kr (no. 357 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 12137); «Gross operating revenue per inhabitant» 100,571 kr (no. 351 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 12137). Most distinctive industry: post og distribusjonsvirksomhet, 6% of the jobs, 10.4 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
  • No. 183 Årdal (−15.4%, among the lowest) Fits the pattern: «Share aged 80 and over» 8.0% (no. 56 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 07459). Most distinctive industry: produksjon av metaller, 35% of the jobs, 90.8 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
  • No. 182 Meløy (−14.4%, among the lowest) The municipality does not stand out on the figures that otherwise go together with the measure. The explanation probably lies in something we have no figures for. Most distinctive industry: produksjon av kjemikalier og kjemiske produkter, 8% of the jobs, 24.8 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).
  • No. 181 Nord-Fron (−11.3%, among the lowest) Fits the pattern: «Share aged 80 and over» 8.2% (no. 46 of 357 from the top; Statistics Norway table 07459). Most distinctive industry: produksjon av trelast og varer av tre, kork, strå og flettematerialer, unntatt møbler, 6% of the jobs, 14.4 times the national share (Statistics Norway table 13470, 2025).

The analysis describes what goes together, not what causes what. Two figures can follow each other because both depend on something else, such as size, location or industry. The figures are from the latest year available for each source, so the years can differ. Rank correlation runs from −1 to 1; values near 1 mean the municipalities lie in roughly the same order on both measures.

What explains the placing?

  • 1. Nannestad 36.3% 666% above the median of the municipalities.
  • 2. Våler (Østfold) 35.5% 649% above the median of the municipalities.
  • 3. Lørenskog 34.1% 620% above the median of the municipalities.
  • 181. Nord-Fron −11.3% 339% below the median of the municipalities.
  • 182. Meløy −14.4% 403% below the median of the municipalities.
  • 183. Årdal −15.4% 426% below the median of the municipalities.
#Municipality County Inhabitants projected population growth to 2050
1 Nannestad Akershus 16,662 36.3%
2 Våler (Østfold) Østfold 6,229 35.5%
3 Lørenskog Akershus 51,511 34.1%
4 Ullensaker Akershus 45,982 31.7%
5 Gjerdrum Akershus 7,478 29.3%
6 Ås Akershus 22,725 29.2%
7 Frøya Trøndelag - Trööndelage 5,794 27.5%
8 Rælingen Akershus 20,904 25.6%
9 Eidsvoll Akershus 28,739 23.3%
10 Øvre Eiker Buskerud 20,965 22.9%
11 Vestby Akershus 20,167 22.3%
12 Holmestrand Vestfold 27,086 21.2%
13 Lillestrøm Akershus 96,771 21.1%
14 Råde Østfold 7,892 20.4%
15 Nes Akershus 24,948 19.9%
16 Hitra Trøndelag - Trööndelage 5,568 19.9%
17 Hole Buskerud 7,205 19.7%
18 Klepp Rogaland 21,444 19.6%
19 Lier Buskerud 28,797 19.3%
20 Kristiansand Agder 119,287 18.6%
21 Nittedal Akershus 26,032 17.6%
22 Sola Rogaland 29,541 17.5%
23 Froland Agder 6,299 17.4%
24 Nordre Follo Akershus 65,381 17.1%
25 Randaberg Rogaland 11,841 17.0%
26 Nesodden Akershus 21,005 16.7%
27 Enebakk Akershus 11,697 16.7%
28 Moss Østfold 53,207 16.3%
29 Time Rogaland 20,461 16.3%
30 Oslo Oslo - Oslove 728,714 15.9%
31 Trondheim Trøndelag - Trööndelage 218,460 15.9%
32 Indre Østfold Østfold 47,943 15.6%
33 Jevnaker Akershus 7,040 15.5%
34 Grimstad Agder 25,569 15.3%
35 Hamar Innlandet 33,817 14.8%
36 Midt-Telemark Telemark 11,157 14.5%
37 Asker Akershus 101,509 14.4%
38 Aurskog-Høland Akershus 18,458 14.0%
39 Bjørnafjorden Vestland 26,753 14.0%
40 Malvik Trøndelag - Trööndelage 14,961 13.9%
41 Lillesand Agder 11,822 13.8%
42 Sogndal Vestland 12,552 13.7%
43 Tønsberg Vestfold 60,246 13.4%
44 Sarpsborg Østfold 60,614 12.9%
45 Frogn Akershus 16,429 12.7%
46 Tvedestrand Agder 6,430 12.7%
47 Bærum Akershus 133,228 12.5%
48 Lillehammer Innlandet 29,669 12.3%
49 Skaun Trøndelag - Trööndelage 8,574 12.3%
50 Ringerike Buskerud 31,942 11.9%

Not ranked because the municipality has fewer than 5,000 inhabitants, where a few people can move the figure a lot (174): Alvdal (−6.0%), Andøy (−8.0%), Aremark (12.8%), Askvoll (−6.8%), Aukra (16.0%), Aure (−4.3%), Aurland (29.7%), Austrheim (12.7%), Bardu (9.4%), Beiarn (−5.0%), Berlevåg (5.3%), Bindal (−10.4%), Bjerkreim (5.1%), Bokn (9.2%), Bremanger (−14.1%), Bygland (10.1%), Bykle (39.0%), Båtsfjord (−2.9%), Bø (−1.3%), Dovre (−5.2%), Drangedal (−6.5%), Dyrøy (−4.6%), Dønna (−3.5%), Eidfjord (2.9%), Engerdal (21.1%), Etne (−6.0%), Etnedal (26.9%), Evenes (11.8%), Evje og Hornnes (7.1%), Fedje (18.5%), Fitjar (−1.3%), Fjaler (9.7%), Fjord (3.2%), Flakstad (12.6%), Flatanger (11.6%), Flesberg (18.5%), Flå (15.1%), Folldal (−4.0%), Frosta (12.1%), Fyresdal (−0.2%) …